Applied demographers face some difficult statistical problems. Users of demographic statistics are demanding estimates and forecasts with levels of detail that traditional demographic methods do not support. New data sources are appearing all the time, but most of the source are noisy, incomplete, and mutually inconsistent. The talk will describe a long-term project to develop Bayesian methods, and the associated software, to address these problems. We will look at some concrete examples, including work to estimate life expectancies for Indigenous Australians.

John Bryant is a statistical demographer at Bayesian Demography Limited. He has worked at universities and government departments in New Zealand and Thailand. He is the author, with Junni Zhang, of the book Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting.

Len Smith is a visiting scholar in the School of Demography and has been working with the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare in a long-term project to improve the estimation of Indigenous mortality and life expectancy.